March 30, 2017

Weather and betting

Weather – arguably the most under-played sports betting market impacter there is. Why? The answer is simple; until TV cameras show what’s going on, it’s more often ignored as being a factor too many and too unpredictable to be worth acute consideration.

Sports data analysts spend countless thousands of hours crunching the numbers on all kinds of stats – players, form, venues, referees/umpires, crowds etc. etc. and that’s fair enough and can and does more often than not provide for the most likely betting market scenarios. Call it sorting the wheat from the chaff. But that one missing ingredient is weather, yes even that sedate type of weather that doesn’t seem to be a factor, yet it is because it simply means it’s all about the sport rather than heat, cold, rain, snow, wind, humidity etc.

In simple terms, weather impact is ‘out of zone’ when it comes to traders, data analysts and indeed bettors themselves. I ask you, how can Asian football feeds to bookmakers contain everything but weather, when for example a wet football/soccer match lifts the goal scored ratio by an average 0.6 per match, not to mention the +penalty and +cards? Yes we have crunched the weather numbers

I’m not necessarily blaming anyone, 20 years ago there were few if any meaningful intricate stats to be had barring the vary basic stuff. Seriously, weather impact across the sports has yet to come of age and it’s there for the taking.

Very recently I posted on here about the last day at a test match between NZ and SA in Dunedin being a washout, yet even as the soggy pictures came on TV the draw price was still above 1.5 and earlier it had been around 1.9. An amazing interest rate for anyone that might have wanted it!

British Weather Services have crunched the numbers across all sports – and yes the most complex sporting weather impacts are those within football/soccer and the least within cricket, which is why weather is seen as far more vital to cricket markets than it is to football/soccer, yet for the same reason the betting value is to be found across football/soccer. But in truth there are edges, advantages and the downright obvious to be had across all forms of weather impacted sports.

March 17, 2017

DSWV appeal to see change in German betting regulation

The German Betting Association (DSWV) has made an appeal to the government regarding the terms of the latest Gambling Treaty Amendment. This forms a part of the lengthy and ongoing battle to reform and better regulate sports betting in Germany.

The amendment to the State Treaty provides the introduction of a quality approval system for sports betting providers. This followed the 2012 move which introduced a licensing procedure for up to 20 sports betting companies; this was immediately criticised by a number of people in and around the industry and it ultimately failed.

DSWV president Mathias Dahms commented: “The minimally invasive revision of the treaty is a small step in the right direction, but it falls short. The restrictive regulations for sports betting operators derive from an outdated monopoly system and have not been capable of creating an attractive and legal range of games.

“If a number of consumers continue to make use of black market products, then neither addiction nor youth and consumer protection can be ensured.”
In short, Dahms is stating that the regulation needs to reflect the social realities that take place in sports betting, and that limiting it to a reduced amount of operators is dangerous. It’s far safer for everyone involved to properly regulate it and not to limit the market in such a drastic fashion, as this leaves a space for and encourages shady and illegal operators.

Dahms continued: “We are only at the beginning of a much-needed reform process. The present regulations are out of date in many areas. The test orders decided by the Prime Minister concerning the development of the regulation certainly help, but require the involvement of the companies concerned. ”

There needs to be an open dialogue going forward, and the DSWV wishes to play a central role in the evaluation process. Dahms noted: “The experience of our members in other European countries shows that successful regulation exists only where providers and authorities cooperate confidently and work together for the environment. We are available at any time for this type of co-operation.”

March 02, 2017

Swiss Government move to block International online gambling sites

The Swiss government pushed through a vote this week demanding that ISP should block International Online Gambling Operators from offering their services to nationals within the country.

But the vote did not go without controversy as opposing government MP’s said that the move was “something dictatorships do.”

Much of the pressure on the government came from land based casino operators in the country claiming their business was being eroded by online gambling sites and that their annual tax payments would be declining. International Online Gambling Operators currently pay no tax from their profits.

ISP are also against the move as they say it is proven woefully incapable of keeping local gamblers from exploring their online options in the country.